MANILA — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that a “short-lived” La Niña may develop in the country as early as September.

In a press statement, PAGASA said model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of La Niña conditions from September to November until the October to December season. At present, the agency said El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are most likely to persist until the August to October season.

“When conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months and the probability is 55% or more, a La Niña Watch is issued,” the agency said.

La Niña, the cool phase of ENSO, is characterized by unusually cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Historically, La Niña brings above-normal rainfall and an above-average number of tropical cyclones toward the end of the year, which could trigger floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.

“DOST-PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the possibility of La Niña, and its effect on the local climate. All concerned agencies and the public are encouraged to continue monitoring and take precautionary measures against their potential impacts,” PAGASA said.

For inquiries, the public may reach the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Climatology and Agrometeorology Division at (02) 8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921 or pagasa.climps@gmail.com.