MANILA — There is a 53 to 58 percent probability of La Niña conditions developing in the country, the state weather bureau said.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis said the country is more likely to experience a weak and short-lived La Niña, instead of a full-blown event that usually lasts six months or longer.

“53 to 58 percent, so more than half po ng tinatawag nating climatological probability,” Solis said in an interview with Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon.

She explained that the typical probability of La Niña around this time of the year is about 30 percent, making current chances significantly higher.

The phenomenon could bring more tropical cyclones forming within or near the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and increase sea surface temperatures near the country. This would make the Philippines prone to moisture-laden weather systems such as storms, low-pressure areas, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and shear lines, which may result in heavier rains starting September.

Areas expected to experience above-normal rainfall include the Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and Mimaropa.

By October to December, rainfall is projected to intensify in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol Region, Eastern and Central Visayas, as well as the Davao Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Caraga, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

Local government units and disaster risk reduction offices were advised to preposition resources, monitor weather updates, and prepare communities in flood- and landslide-prone areas.

Solis noted that historically, more storms make landfall or cross the country during the last quarter of the year. While not all may bring destructive winds, many are expected to carry heavy rains and may interact with other weather systems such as the southwest monsoon (habagat), northeast monsoon (amihan), shear line, ITCZ, and low-pressure areas. (PNA)