MANILA — The Department of Agriculture (DA) has lowered its rice production target for 2025, citing widespread flooding in major agricultural areas brought about by erratic weather conditions.

From an earlier projection of 20.46 million metric tons, the DA now expects palay output to range between 20.09 and 20.39 million metric tons, or about 12.65 to 12.85 million metric tons of milled rice. The revised estimate was presented during the DA’s 2026 budget hearing before the House Committee on Appropriations.

“The rainfall volume we’ve seen in recent months has been unprecedented. This is just a more conservative stance—prudence in the face of uncertainty,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. told lawmakers.

The 2025 outlook remains higher than 2024’s 19.09 million metric tons, which was heavily affected by El Niño and La Niña. Palay production in the first half of 2025 has already risen 6.4 percent year-on-year to 9.08 million metric tons, supported by improved weather and government interventions.

Laurel said recent price volatility could also affect farmers’ planting decisions. To help stabilize farmgate prices, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ordered a two-month suspension of rice imports starting September 1.

By year-end, the country’s rice supply is projected to settle between 3.86 and 3.96 million metric tons, enough for 96 to 101 days of consumption, based on the Philippine Statistics Authority’s per capita consumption estimate of 122.7 kilos annually.

During the hearing, Laurel underscored the importance of the DA’s proposed ₱176.7-billion budget for 2026 in modernizing agriculture and raising farmers’ and fisherfolk’s incomes. Lawmakers expressed support for the agency’s allocation and signaled openness to increasing its capital outlay.