MANILA — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday warned that the ongoing short-lived La Niña will continue to bring above-normal rainfall across many parts of the country until February, raising the risk of flooding, landslides, and other weather-related disruptions.

PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said the current La Niña episode, expected to last no more than six months, is already influencing local weather patterns by pushing more moisture toward the Philippines.

“So, nandiyan pa rin po iyong banta ng mataas na dami ng pag-ulan… maraming beses na mararanasan iyong mga rain-bearing weather systems natin,” Solis said, noting that the shear line is currently very prevalent.

Since August, PAGASA has monitored La Niña conditions, raising alerts as tropical cyclones entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility, triggering heavy rains in Luzon, Visayas, and parts of Mindanao.

Rainfall risks remain elevated in Region II, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western and Central Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, Soccsksargen, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro region. Eastern sections of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao are expected to see the heaviest rains until early February.

PAGASA also reported 23 tropical cyclones so far this year, surpassing the annual average of 19 to 20, with the possibility of one more forming before year-end. Warmer easterlies and sea surface temperatures near the Philippines continue to contribute to convective systems, low-pressure areas, and potential cyclones.

The agency urged local government units to coordinate with the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG), and emergency response agencies to ensure preparedness. Early warning systems, localized evacuation plans, and close monitoring of high-risk areas remain critical.

Although La Niña is expected to weaken by February, PAGASA sees no imminent shift to El Niño and is monitoring for an ENSO-neutral phase early next year.

Officials emphasized that communities must remain vigilant as persistent rains and frequent weather systems may continue to trigger hazards in already saturated areas nationwide.

(PNA)