MANILA — The Department of Agriculture (DA) expects the Philippines’ rice imports in 2026 to fall below 4 million metric tons as domestic production is projected to reach a new record, Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said.

Tiu Laurel said import volumes next year will likely range between 3.6 million and 3.8 million metric tons, which would be sufficient to meet national demand without depressing farmgate prices.

At a consultative meeting with rice importers, the secretary outlined a plan to better calibrate import volumes to keep rice affordable for consumers while ensuring fair palay prices for farmers, a balance that importers reportedly support.

The projected import volume considers the DA’s forecast that palay output in 2026 will reach around 20.3 million metric tons—nearly matching the original target for this year, which fell short due to flooding and other weather disturbances. The Philippines set a record harvest of 20.06 million metric tons in 2023.

Even before the four-month import ban ends at the close of 2025, the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) will begin processing applications for Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearances (SPICs) covering about 500,000 metric tons, including 50,000 metric tons reserved for government agencies. All shipments must arrive by mid-February to prevent imported rice from weighing down palay prices at the start of the summer harvest.

When importation resumes, tariffs will rise to 20 percent from 15 percent, in line with an agreement among economic managers of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

“The tariff increase reflects several realities—the recent depreciation of the peso and the likelihood of higher global prices once the Philippines reenters the market,” Tiu Laurel said.

To ease cash-flow pressures on importers, the DA will waive the usual 10-percent down payment requirement for SPIC issuance. Rice imports during the January–February window will be limited to 17 ports nationwide, including Manila, Batangas, Tacloban, Bacolod, Iligan, Cagayan de Oro, Davao, Zamboanga, Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Tagbilaran, Dumaguete, Subic, Calbayog, General Santos, and Tabaco.

Tiu Laurel also encouraged importers to diversify their sources. “Instead of relying almost entirely on Vietnam, we encourage importers to consider Cambodia, Myanmar, and other non-traditional suppliers,” he said.

Rice importation has been liberalized under the Rice Tariffication Law. In 2024, the Philippines imported a record 4.8 million metric tons of rice—33 percent more than in 2023—as traders moved early amid concerns over weaker harvests caused by El Niño and La Niña.

The BPI estimates total rice imports this year will reach around 3.5 million metric tons, sharply lower than the 2024 record, largely due to the four-month import freeze that began in September.

Tiu Laurel noted that the additional 1.2 million metric tons imported in 2024, combined with heavy arrivals in early 2025 before the ban took effect, dragged down palay prices and squeezed farmers’ incomes.

The US Department of Agriculture has forecast Philippine rice imports at 5.5 million metric tons for the 2025–2026 marketing year. However, with the import ban already in place and the DA committed to tightly managing volumes to support farmgate prices, that projection is increasingly unlikely to be realized.