MANILA — Nearly nine in 10 Filipinos will enter 2026 with hope rather than fear, but overall optimism has fallen to its lowest level in 16 years, according to a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey.

The nationwide survey, conducted from November 24 to 30, found that 89 percent of adult Filipinos said they would enter the New Year with hope. This is down from 90 percent in 2024 and 96 percent in 2023, and matches the 89 percent recorded in 2009 — the lowest level since then.

Meanwhile, 11 percent of respondents said they would welcome the New Year with fear, up from 10 percent in 2024 and just 3 percent in 2023. This is the highest level of fear expressed for the coming year since 2009.

From 2010 to 2024, New Year optimism consistently stayed in the 90s, peaking at 96 percent in 2023 before declining over the past two years. SWS first measured New Year hope at 87 percent in 2000, and the figure has fallen into the 80s only seven times: in 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2009 and 2025.

The survey also showed a link between Christmas expectations and outlook for the New Year. Among respondents who expected a happy Christmas, 92 percent said they were hopeful about 2026, compared to 83 percent among those expecting neither a happy nor sad Christmas, and 79 percent among those expecting a sad Christmas.

A separate SWS survey released on December 24 found that 68 percent of Filipinos expected a happy Christmas, up from 65 percent in 2024.

By area, hope for the coming year was highest in Balance Luzon at 92 percent, followed by Metro Manila at 90 percent, the Visayas at 85 percent, and Mindanao at 84 percent. Compared with the end of 2024, optimism declined by five points in Mindanao and two points in the Visayas, while it remained unchanged in Balance Luzon and was nearly steady in Metro Manila.

By educational attainment, those with some senior high school education posted the highest optimism at 93 percent, followed by college graduates at 91 percent. Non-elementary graduates recorded the lowest optimism at 81 percent.

Hope fell most sharply among college graduates, down five points from 96 percent in 2024, and among elementary graduates, down three points from 89 percent.

The nationwide face-to-face survey interviewed 1,200 adults, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points for national results and ±6 percentage points for each region.

Respondents were asked in Filipino: “Ang darating na taon ba ay inyong sasalubungin nang may pag-asa o may pangamba?” (Is it with hopes or with fears that you enter the coming year?).