MANILA – The Philippines is expected to have enough electricity in the second quarter of 2026, but weaknesses in the power grid mean supply remains fragile, with the possibility of alerts and tightness, particularly in the Visayas, according to a group monitoring the sector.

Presenting the Philippine Power Sector Outlook for April to June 2026, Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) senior data analyst Charles Jason Dizon said the situation varies across island grids, with vulnerabilities stemming from plant outages, delayed projects, and structural issues in the system.

Among the three main grids, the Visayas is the most vulnerable. Dizon said yellow alerts could occur in May despite support from electricity imports.

“Normal reserves can be maintained through imports, but a yellow alert would still be possible in the month of May,” he said.

The Visayas relies heavily on electricity imported from Luzon and Mindanao because its local generation is insufficient to meet demand. “If you look at the operating margins, [it is] negative—meaning the power plants within Visayas are not enough to meet demand,” Dizon explained. Even with imports, reserves may fall below required levels during peak weeks.

In Luzon, power supply is expected to remain stable, contingent on the timely completion of new projects. “We see that there will be adequate reserves throughout the second quarter… contingent on the timely delivery of committed capacities,” Dizon said. Delays could push margins into yellow alert territory, especially during peak demand months such as May and June.

Mindanao, meanwhile, is projected to maintain normal reserves, supported by strong generation, particularly from hydropower. “Hindi po masyadong bumababa yung kanyang operating margins (Its operating margins do not drop significantly),” Dizon said. Still, exports to other grids may need to be managed to ensure sufficient local supply.

Rising temperatures this dry season are expected to increase electricity demand, adding pressure to the grid. ICSC chief data scientist Jephraim Manansala said higher temperatures lead to greater use of air-conditioning and cooling systems. “As the weather gets hotter, the use of air-conditioning increases… Sa pagtaas ng electricity demand… nagkakaroon tayo ng mas mataas na grid stress sa ating sistema (As electricity demand increases, it leads to higher grid stress in the system),” he said.

The group pointed to early signs of grid vulnerability, including a yellow alert in the Visayas in January, triggered by scheduled maintenance, forced coal plant outages, and reduced output from other facilities. “This just goes to show that the vulnerabilities in our power system are structural, hindi lang po siya seasonal (This shows that the vulnerabilities in our power system are structural, not just seasonal),” Dizon said.

ICSC also warned that reliance on outdated assumptions for official projections could increase the risk of unexpected supply shortages. Dizon urged avoiding forced outages, particularly among baseload plants, to maintain stability.

Global developments, including tensions in the Middle East, could also affect electricity supply and costs. “Hindi na lang tayo sa coal exposed… we are also exposed now [to] the global LNG market (We are no longer only exposed to coal… we are now also exposed to the global LNG market),” Dizon said.

To reduce risks, ICSC recommended investments in flexible energy sources such as hydropower, battery storage, and other fast-ramping technologies, as well as grid modernization and more granular monitoring of island-level conditions. Dizon added, “Each island has its own specific situation… looking at each one can help determine the right interventions.”

The group encouraged consumers to shift electricity use to off-peak hours, use energy-efficient appliances, and adopt rooftop solar systems to help ease demand and reduce reliance on imported fuels.