MANILA – Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. sought to ease concerns over a possible surge in food prices, saying projections linked to soaring oil costs are based on unlikely scenarios and do not account for government interventions.

Tiu Laurel said estimates presented to the Senate, which assumed crude oil prices reaching an average of USD200 per barrel over six months, were anchored on “extreme assumptions” and did not include mitigating measures from the government.

“The prices presented assumed the full impact of soaring crude,” Tiu Laurel said. “They did not factor in government action, which we will undertake to protect Filipinos from an oil shock.”

Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised fears of supply disruptions, particularly along the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global fuel and fertilizer shipments. The Department of Agriculture (DA) noted that around 30 percent of global urea trade and about 20 percent of ammonia and phosphate shipments pass through the area.

Despite these risks, the government has begun implementing measures to cushion potential impacts. The Department of Energy has secured additional crude supply from alternative sources, including Russia, to diversify import channels.

In the agriculture sector, Tiu Laurel said the Fertilizer and Pesticide Authority has been authorized to conduct emergency procurement, while government-linked firms such as Planters Products Inc. may increase imports. He noted that in October, PPI sourced 120,000 bags of 14-14-14 complete fertilizer from Vietnam.

The DA is also considering alternative inputs, including organic fertilizers like chicken manure, to reduce dependence on petroleum-based products.

Tiu Laurel said local conditions remain stable despite global uncertainties, with food prices generally steady. He added that pork supply remains sufficient, while broiler production continues to exceed demand, helping bring down farmgate prices.

While acknowledging risks if oil prices remain elevated, the agriculture chief said current indicators show the sector is in a better position to withstand potential shocks than earlier projections suggest.

He also warned traders and suppliers against taking advantage of the situation, cautioning them against unwarranted price increases and hoarding.

“We are ready to apply the full force of the law against anyone who seeks to exploit the situation,” he said.