MANILA — Vice President Sara Duterte maintained the lead in early preferences for the 2028 presidential race but saw her numbers decline, while Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo posted a significant surge, according to the latest OCTA Research survey.

Based on the Q1 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey conducted from March 19 to 25, Duterte registered 33 percent preference, down from 38 percent in the previous quarter.

Robredo, meanwhile, rose sharply to 21 percent from 8 percent in Q4 2025, marking a 13-point increase—the highest gain among potential contenders.

“The [gap] has contracted from 30 to 12 points from the last survey, indicating a more competitive preference landscape,” OCTA Research said.

Manila Mayor Isko Moreno followed with 10 percent, up from 8 percent, while Senator Raffy Tulfo dropped to 9 percent from 12 percent. Senator Bam Aquino remained steady at 4 percent.

The survey also showed that 2 percent of respondents were undecided, while 1 percent refused to answer. Other personalities collectively accounted for 20 percent, reflecting a fragmented field beyond the leading names.

OCTA said the non-commissioned survey used face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above across the country.

The poll carries a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level, while subnational estimates for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao have a ±6 percent margin of error.