MANILA — The Philippines is closely monitoring Chinese activities at Bajo de Masinloc, also known as Scarborough Shoal, following the reported presence of a newly discovered floating structure that authorities and experts fear could signal possible occupation and eventual militarization.

Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea (WPS), Navy Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, said at the Saturday News Forum in Quezon City that the military is observing developments in the area.

“We have learned our history kung paano nag-o-operate ang Chinese Communist Party. We are keeping a very close eye on developments sa (We have learned our history how the CCP operates. We are keeping a very close eye on developments at) Bajo de Masinloc,” Trinidad said.

He pointed to past Chinese activities in the West Philippine Sea, citing Mischief Reef as an example of gradual development that eventually led to militarization.

“Sinasabi nila na hindi ito mami-militarize, but in 2016, ‘yong unang military aircraft ay nag-land sa (At that time, they said they will not militarize it, but in 2016, their first military aircraft landed on) Mischief or Panganiban Reef,” he said.

Trinidad said the AFP’s directive remains firm in defending Philippine territory “down to its last square inch,” while the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) continues to monitor the floating platform reportedly inside Scarborough Shoal.

University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea director Jay Batongbacal warned that similar platforms in the past preceded the development of artificial islands in the area.

“Sa ngayon ang sinasabi daw nila (China) ay scientific research daw ang dahilan, pero ang naaalala natin agad kapag sinabi nila iyon ay iyon din ang sinabi nila bago nila kunin ang Fiery Cross Reef at tayuan ng mga permanenteng istruktura at ngayon ay malaking artificial island na (Right now, they are saying that they are there for scientific research, but what we immediately recall when they said that was what they did when they took Fiery Cross Reef and built permanent structures that is now a massive artificial island),” Batongbacal said.

“So, parang nagiging hudyat ito na susubukin na naman yata nila uli (So, it’s like another signal that they will attempt to do that again),” he added.

Batongbacal warned that Scarborough Shoal could be transformed into a militarized feature within a year if such plans proceed, citing China’s past island-building activities.

“Iyong nangyari sa West Philippine Sea na pito ‘yong sunod sunod ‘yong construction nila ng artificial islands, nangyari lahat iyon (Similar to what happened when they constructed seven artificial islands in the West Philippine Sea, all of them happened) in two years,” he said.

“Alam natin na once inumpisahan nila ‘yan kayang kaya nila iyan, within a year matatakpan na nila ang (We know that once they started, they can do it, within a year they could cover the entire) Scarborough Shoal.”

He added that allowing militarization of the shoal, located 124 nautical miles off Zambales, would pose a “serious threat” to Philippine national security.

Retired Philippine Navy Rear Admiral Rommel Ong, professor of praxis at the Ateneo School of Government, said authorities may consider calibrated actions to de-escalate tensions or enforce a “red line” regarding Chinese activities in the area.

Ong also suggested strengthening presence along routes between Hainan and Bajo de Masinloc, where logistical support for Chinese operations may pass.

Batongbacal added that the Philippines could also strengthen security cooperation with allies such as Japan and Australia in addressing the situation, noting that invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States would depend on whether the activity is classified as an act of aggression.

“Sa ngayon dahil ang current situation ay puwede pang i-atras, puwede pang tanggalin ang mga struktura doon, parang hindi pa timely para i-invoke ang MDT in the sense para gamitin at tanggalin by force ang mga structure na ‘yan (As of now, since the platform could still be moved, I think it is not yet timely to invoke the MDT for its removal by force),” he said.

PCG spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, Rear Admiral Jay Tarriela, said maritime transparency efforts will continue to be crucial in exposing activities in the area.

The Department of Foreign Affairs has earlier issued demarches and filed formal protests over the reported structure in Bajo de Masinloc.