MANILA — A hypothetical 2028 presidential and vice presidential tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo leads a pairing of Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte and Senator Robinhood “Robin” Padilla, according to OCTA Research’s latest Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey released Tuesday.

The nationwide poll found that 43% of adult Filipinos would vote for the Robredo-Tulfo tandem, compared with 39% who prefer the Duterte-Padilla pairing. Another 18% said they would choose neither tandem or were undecided.

The results were nearly identical among the 1,170 respondents who identified themselves as registered voters, with 43% supporting Robredo-Tulfo, 40% favoring Duterte-Padilla, and 17% remaining uncommitted.

OCTA said the Robredo-Tulfo tandem’s four-percentage-point lead was only slightly above the survey’s ±3-percentage-point margin of error. As this was the first survey examining the hypothetical pairing, the results do not establish whether support for either tandem is increasing or declining.

The third-quarter non-commissioned survey was conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2026, among 1,200 adult respondents nationwide, or more than a month before Robredo reiterated on Nov. 9 that she would not seek a return to national politics.

OCTA emphasized that the findings represent voter preferences during the fieldwork period, roughly 19 months before the May 2028 elections, and should be treated as an early baseline rather than a forecast of the eventual outcome.

The Robredo-Tulfo tandem drew much of its support from Luzon, leading 61% to 19% in Balance Luzon, 69% in North Luzon, and 49% to 32% in Metro Manila. Around 80% of its supporters were from Luzon.

It also led in Western Visayas and the Negros Island Region, as well as among women, urban residents, voters aged 45 and above, respondents from socioeconomic Classes ABC and E, and college-educated Filipinos.

The Duterte-Padilla tandem, meanwhile, posted its strongest numbers in Mindanao, where it led 81% to 4%. Its support reached 84% to 90% in the Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, while it recorded 79% in Central Visayas.

Nearly half of Duterte-Padilla supporters, or 47%, came from Mindanao, although the rest were based elsewhere, with Metro Manila serving as its second-largest regional source of support.

The tandem also led among men, rural residents, voters aged 25 to 44, respondents with no formal or elementary education, and the D2 segment of Class D.

Meanwhile, the two pairings were closely matched in the Visayas, where Duterte-Padilla received 43% against Robredo-Tulfo’s 41%. Class D voters were evenly divided at 41% each, while voters aged 18 to 24 and those with high school education also showed narrow differences in preference.

The uncommitted group accounted for 18% of respondents nationally, more than four times the four-point gap between the two tandems. It was particularly concentrated in South Luzon, including CALABARZON, where 32% were uncommitted, and rural South Luzon, where the figure reached 36%.

“With the lead slight, the uncommitted bloc large, and the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte still unresolved, this matchup remains an early and open baseline — not a prediction of the May 2028 outcome,” OCTA said.

OCTA described the TNM as an independent, non-partisan survey conducted regularly by the research group.