MANILA — The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is projecting that headline inflation in May could accelerate to between 7.1 percent and 7.9 percent, driven mainly by higher prices of key food commodities and movements in the exchange rate.

In a statement on Saturday, the BSP said upward price pressures are expected from rice, vegetables, and meat, alongside the depreciation of the peso.

“The BSP projects May 2026 inflation to settle within the range of 7.1 to 7.9 percent. Upside price pressures were driven by rising prices for rice, vegetables, and meat, as well as the depreciation of the peso,” the BSP said in its month-ahead inflation forecast.

The central bank added that these factors are expected to place “significant pressure on consumer prices.”

However, it noted that several developments helped ease overall inflationary pressures, including lower fuel prices, reduced fish prices, and slightly lower electricity rates.

“The recent rollbacks in domestic fuel prices, lower prices for fish, and slightly lower electricity rates partially offset the prevailing upside price pressures,” it said.

The latest projection comes after headline inflation climbed to 7.2 percent in April, up from 4.1 percent in March.

April’s inflation print also exceeded the BSP’s forecast range of 5.6 percent to 6.4 percent, driven mainly by faster increases in food and transport costs amid global oil volatility linked to the conflict in the Middle East.