MANILA — Gasoline prices are expected to go down in the coming week, while diesel prices are projected to increase, amid continued concerns over developments in the Middle East, according to industry estimates.

Based on price movements as of Thursday, Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas forecast that gasoline prices may be reduced by PHP1 to PHP1.50 per liter, while diesel prices may go up by PHP4 to PHP4.50 per liter.

Bellas attributed the projected movement to global oil market conditions driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns.

“crude oil and refined fuel products prices have rallied this week on worries of stalled diplomacy and prolonged supply disruption following the suspension of negotiations on the peace deal, and renewed threats by Iran of full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

He added that market sentiment was also affected by concerns over global inventories.

“Concerns that global oil inventories could hit critical levels if stock draws continue at the current pace further contributed to the bullish sentiment,” he said.

Bellas said the increase in diesel and middle distillate prices reflected tighter crude oil benchmarks and supply risks linked to the Middle East situation.

He said uncertainty over a possible resolution in the region has added pressure on supply expectations.

“…reflected the sharp surge in crude oil price benchmarks as the prospect of a resolution in the Middle East conflict has faded, sparking worries that further disruption of feedstock availability from the region would result (in) faster depletion of global stock inventories as peak summer demand approaches.”

For gasoline, however, he noted that prices have eased due to supply and demand factors in Asia.

“For gasoline, prices have declined “due to increased supply from regional refineries and signals of weak demand in some parts of Asia.”

He also said regional supply conditions remain tight despite the recent easing in gasoline prices.

“Nevertheless, the supply outlook in Asia remains tight and inventories remaining relatively low as refineries prioritize middle distillate production,” Bellas said.

Bellas added that the recent ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon helped ease global oil prices and may support further declines if diplomatic talks progress.

“Following the recent ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, global oil prices have softened and likely to ease down further as hopes that the peace talks between the US and Iran will continue.”

He further noted that trading movements in the Asian benchmark Mean of Platts Singapore could influence the final price adjustments.

He added that prices in the Asian benchmark, the Mean of Platts Singapore, “are likely to go down in today’s trading, potentially pushing the possible increase on diesel to the lower range of the estimate, and the rollback on gasoline to the higher side.”